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比特币减半在即,为何被视为牛市开始的信号?

比特币减半是指在挖矿的过程中,将矿工的区块奖励减半。每产生21万个区块就触发一次减半事件决定了比特币总量有限约为2100万枚,挖矿难度调整保证了新区块平均产出时间约为10分钟。在这些机制的作用下,比特币的供应发行速度逐渐减缓,不会因为技术发展等因素导致总供应过快地达到上限,有效地避免了过度通货膨胀,使得比特币具有了稀缺性。

同时,我们也能够推算出比特币每次减半的大致时间(4年),以及总供应量达到上限的时间(2140年)。

比特币第一次、第二次、第三次的减半时间分别是在2012年11月、2016年7月、2020年5月,每个区块奖励由 50 BTC 逐次减半至 6.25 BTC(50 - 25 - 12.5 - 6.25 BTC),第四次、也是即将发生的减半事件,预计在2024年4月,区块奖励将减半至3.125 BTC。

由于减半前后,供应的突然下降导致了供求关系变化,比特币价格也会出现较大波动,从历史数据来看,比特币呈现出了4年牛熊周期,也带动了整个行业出现较为鲜明的周期性。因此,比特币减半被视为加密行业的重要事件。

即将到来的此次减半事件,也将进一步提高比特币的生产成本,并切实影响着矿工竞争和收入情况。而其能否开启新一轮牛市,在比特币生态被看见被推崇的当下,又能和市场共振带来何种热潮和革新,我们拭目以待!

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